May 19, 2026

Why We're Not Waiting on Flights Right Now (And What to Do Instead)

Gas prices are having a moment. And if you've been watching airfares lately, quietly hoping they'd come back down before you hit "book," this one's for you.

A lot of my clients are in a holding pattern right now. The trips are planned in spirit: a summer vacation, a big international trip, maybe a milestone celebration that deserves more than a last-minute scramble. But the actual booking keeps getting pushed. The reasoning is understandable. Prices feel high, and the instinct is to wait it out and hope for a better number.

Here's my honest take, as someone whose entire job is to help you travel smarter: the window you're waiting for probably isn't coming. The longer you wait, the more expensive and complicated this gets.

Let me explain why, and more importantly, what I'd recommend instead.

The Fuel Reality Airlines Aren't Advertising

I think most people generally understand jet fuel prices affect airfares. But the scale of it is worth understanding, because it changes the whole "wait and see" calculation.

Fuel is the single largest variable operating cost for any airline. In 2024, U.S. airlines alone spent roughly $48.2 billion on jet fuel, which works out to more than $132 million every single day. Globally, the industry's fuel bill hit $291 billion that same year. This means they are the dominant force shaping what you pay for a ticket.

And right now, that force is pushing prices up.

Jet fuel costs have surged well beyond what the industry had forecasted for 2026, driven by geopolitical instability and supply-side constraints that aren't easily reversed. Seven major oil refineries have permanently closed since 2019, removing over 1.2 million barrels per day of processing capacity from the market, right as demand for jet fuel is on track to hit an all-time high. This isn't temporary. It's a structural shift in the market.

And airlines aren't absorbing this cost. They're passing it on.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said publicly that ticket prices may need to rise by as much as 15 to 20% to offset the surge in fuel costs. Air France-KLM announced a $2.4 billion increase in its expected fuel bill and has already raised long-haul fares by 50 euros per round trip. And the International Air Transport Association, the global body representing over 300 airlines worldwide, stated flatly that fare increases are "essentially unavoidable" in the current environment.

Airlines are telling us bluntly that prices are going up. We should be listening.

The One Airline That Saw This Coming

Here's something I find genuinely fascinating, and it says a lot about how rare real foresight is in this industry.

Delta Air Lines is the only commercial airline in the world that owns its own oil refinery. In 2012, Delta purchased the Trainer refinery outside Philadelphia for $150 million. At the time, the analyst community largely dismissed it. Airlines don't refine oil. That's not their business. It was seen as a distraction, maybe even a little reckless.

Fourteen years later, that bet is delivering a $300 million quarterly benefit to Delta's bottom line, and they’re laughing while every other major carrier buys fuel on the open market and absorbs whatever prices do.

I'm not sharing this to give Delta a commercial. I'm sharing it because it puts the fuel conversation in perspective. Fuel is so central to what drives airfare that one airline hedged its bets over a decade ago. And that bet is now paying off.

For every other airline out there, there's no such cushion. When fuel costs spike, fares follow.

What This Means for Your Booking Timeline

The instinct to wait is completely reasonable. Nobody wants to pay more than they have to. But the math on "waiting for a better deal" has shifted. The flight market is kind of spiralling in all of this.

Fuel surcharges are already being reinstated across the board, and they're applying to both cash bookings and award tickets. Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, Korean Air, Emirates, Lufthansa, Cathay Pacific, and Air India have all raised surcharges in recent months. Japan's two largest carriers now charge an extra $164 on U.S. to Japan routes alone. Cathay Pacific has said it will review and revise its add-on charges every two weeks as jet fuel prices continue to move.

At the budget end of the market, things are more serious. Spirit Airlines ceased operations entirely on May 2, 2026, stranding passengers and rendering loyalty points worthless overnight. A consortium of ultra-low-cost carriers including Frontier and Allegiant has been seeking $2.5 billion in government assistance just to stay afloat. When budget options shrink, the middle and premium tiers get more crowded, and more expensive.

The window for locking in solid rates on peak summer travel, international routes, and popular destinations is getting smaller. Not because I'm trying to manufacture urgency, but because the conditions creating that window are closing.

So What's the Right Move?

This is where I want to be useful rather than just alarming:

Book the flight now. Peak season is nearing; the closer it gets, the more exposed you are to prices moving in the wrong direction.

Use date flexibility where you have it. If your trip has any wiggle room on timing, it's worth exploring.

Don't sleep on hotels. Once the flight is booked, there's a real opportunity to be strategic about accommodation. Hotels have more pricing flexibility than flights, and there are smart ways to work that to your advantage. One of the things I do for my clients is monitor for rate drops and rebook when something better opens up.

For group travel, act now. The coordination alone takes time, and every week of delay is another week of exposure to shrinking availability and climbing prices.

The Bottom Line

I got into this business because I genuinely love helping people travel well. Not just cheaply, but thoughtfully, in a way that fits their life and their budget. That hasn't changed.

What has changed is the market, and my job is to keep my clients informed of just that.

Right now, the play is to lock in flights, then let the accommodation side be where we find some room. That's the sequence that makes sense in this environment, and it's the approach I'm walking all of my clients through right now.

If you've got a trip in the works or an idea, let's talk through it. The trip you want is still there. The time to book it is now.

Sources

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